News

e-Paper goes mainstream - in two years

Mainstream pundits still don't get what e-paper is about. A big PR success for Plastic Logic and e-Ink saw a Fortune magazine focus on the new technologies - but entirely focused on magazine publishing.

In reality, next generation displays will probably affect non-publishing technology far more profoundly, in the long run.

Next generation displays are remarkable not only for their flexibility and light weight. What they offer is an electronic display which uses trivial amounts of battery power, can be permanently "on" without drawing current, and are as good as paper in readability.

They will impact mobile computing generally, of which publishing is a tiny part.

Michael V. Copeland, senior writer at Fortune, sees the e-book almost purely as a replacement for paper-printed newspapers and periodicals, as they struggle with falling advert revenues:

The Internet has not yet become the moneymaker that the $300 billion global publishing industry had hoped. Online revenue is growing, but not fast enough to make up for falling print advertising. Even the New York Times, a paper that has turned its staff loose online more than most, needed a recent $250 million cash infusion from Mexican telecom billionaire Carlos Slim to keep chugging along.

So if the Internet can't do it, what can save the New York Times (NYT) or your favorite magazine from withering away? Increasingly, publishers like News Corp. (NWS, Fortune 500), Hearst, and Time Inc. (the owner of Fortune) are looking toward a coming generation of so-called e-readers. These are handheld gadgets akin to Amazon's Kindle or the Sony Reader that use electronic "ink" rendered on a crisp screen to deliver an experience that approximates reading on paper - without the cost of paper, printing, and delivery.

The examples of the Kindle and the Sony Reader are (rightly) dismissed as primitive and there's a useful snapshot of upcoming technologies which are more likely to be successful.

But the impact of e-books on education is likely to be even more profound, says Nick Hampshire, founder of AFAICS Research. "We'd expect Chinese education alone to drive this market, as they use electronics rather than paper for their growing education programme," he said recently.

The Fortune article is, however, an important breakthrough for the e-paper industry. The author warns of a new Hearst-sponsored development,  on which Hearst publications are expected to be displayed. And it forecasts colour e-paper displays.

But all of this information is at least two years old. The definitive reference for e-paper and e-display, the AFAICS Research report, has not only been in the hands of industry insiders for that long, but the report is now available in a second edition.

It lists not just a half dozen products, but nearly 30 different front-plane and back-plane technologies, all capable of very low-cost development, requiring tiny amounts of initial capital to launch on the market as products.

For example, the AFAICS report lists the idea of revolutionising orchestral music. Instead of having to buy sheet music for every desk in a band, one sheet of e-paper can "hold" and display every symphony, barcarole, concerto, ballad or march ever played.

And marching bands parading down the streets will not need to turn pages - or shuffle A5-size cards - ever again; just flick the corner of one electronic display card.

No TFT-based technology could justify such a specialist product; but many rival e-Paper products could justify the launch.

The author is a founding partner in AFAICS Research.