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That's 4,500% of... how much WiMAX subscriber revenue?

It probably doesn't help you to sell a research paper if the market you're surveying is going nowhere; so a cynic might suggest that ABI's Philip Solis has an understandable motive for emphasising the likely growth in WiMAX markets.

The headline figure: "Despite the Naysayers WiMAX Subscriber Revenue Will Grow by 4,500+% in 2009" as predicted by Solis, is based on the "many growth opportunities beyond traditional mobile operator networks, including data-centric deployments in both developed and developing regions.

"To ignore a growth market in a down economy would be a mistake," is his analysis. You should, he says, ignore the headlines: 

Any reader who believed all the recent headlines would feel confident that the WiMAX market is being crushed by LTE. Nortel has left the WiMAX market and Alcatel-Lucent has “backed off” from WiMAX; and these developments supposedly dealt a blow to Clearwire, which had so far chosen neither as an infrastructure vendor.

But that’s not quite the whole story, Solis reckons. The apparent bad news, he says, is not really bad news:

Nortel exited the mobile WiMAX market because it failed to become competitive and win any significant business. Nortel is staying in the fixed WiMAX market. Alcatel-Lucent didn’t really back away from mobile WiMAX, but rather views it more as a wireless broadband solution than a fully mobile wireless solution. Alcatel-Lucent moved R&D spending from WiMAX to LTE since WiMAX is productized while LTE is just starting to develop.

The talk at the recent Mobile World Congress had most off-record remarks focusing on that issue: fixed versus mobile WiMAX. Few disputed that fixed WiMAX has a good future, especially in "emerging markets" - even fewer suggested that mobile WiMAX had much future at all. Solis pooh-poohed this: 

The lines are very blurred between fixed/portable use of mobile WiMAX and fixed/portable/mobile use of mobile WiMAX. Many deployments will start with fixed and portable services first and may evolve to fully mobile use later.

They may... maybe! But anyway: contrary to the popular view, Alcatel-Lucent is still quite involved with mobile WiMAX, says Solis:

“The company has had its 3.5 GHz products certified by the WiMAX Forum; its ‘ng Connect’ program, includes mobile WiMAX; and it is working with Intel on an interoperability program for mobile WiMAX devices. In addition, Alcatel-Lucent ranks first in 2008 market share for mobile WiMAX base station deployments, followed by Alvarion, Motorola, and Samsung.”

Even if you refuse to believe in mobile WiMAX, the technology "has many growth opportunities beyond traditional mobile operator networks," including data-centric deployments in both developed and developing regions.

What Solis coyly doesn't include in his sales pitch for ABI Research’s new study (“WiMAX Market Analysis and Forecasts”) are the figures for subscriber revenues now. Growth of 4,500% is growth, no question; but what's the baseline figure?

"The study examines major drivers and barriers for WiMAX and the potential for mobile WiMAX devices and services. The report contains forecast sets for 802.16-2004 and 802.16e-2005. Detailed segmentation is provided for mobile WiMAX devices, including external adapters, miniCards inside laptops, netbooks and MIDs, handsets, and consumer electronics."

No data given here; though the figures are available in the full report, says the company web site.

No doubt ABI Research will respond shortly with the current market revenues for subscriber revenues, and an actual hard number for what this 4,500% figure will reach by end 2009, and also by end 2010. Then again, maybe not...