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OK, what's a 3G device? and how many does America have?
by Guy J Kewney | posted on 04 September 2008
"For years, the American mobile industry has aspired to the level of sophistication of the European market," observed Mark Donovan, senior vice president and senior analyst, comScore. "Today, Americans have finally caught up with Europeans in adoption of 3G."
The quote comes from an announcement which comScore will elaborate on next week at CTIA but which, tantalisingly, contains only the bare-bones facts: that in devices, the US has caught up with Europe.
Specifically: "The United States has caught up with Western Europe in the adoption of 3G, with 28.4 percent of American mobile subscribers having 3G devices versus 28.3 percent in the largest countries in Europe."
What devices? No details available till next week. What about coverage? no details till next week.
But the news is dismal for European operators who have sunk vast sums into the 3G infrastructure, because it implies that European phone owners are happy to carry on with ordinary 2G phones on the GSM standard. Americans have far less access to GSM networks and a viable alternative in the existing CDMA infrastructure. If they want a new phone, they are more likely to skip GSM and go straight to 3G.
However, the question of "what devices?" is crucial to understanding these figures. Much of the growth in genuine 3G usage in Europe recently has been 3G data devices, not phones (which typically use GSM even if they are 3G phones).
So the question which comScore will be asked at CTIA will be: "How does 3G coverage compare, in the US, with Europe?" - and the answer may contain clues as to which market will see most growth in the next half decade.
Tables:
Area
Penetration June 2007
Penetration June 2008
point change
Germany
15.1%
23.9%
8.1
Spain
22.5%
37.2%
14.7
France
12.6%
17.1%
4.5
Italy
32.1%
38.3%
6.2
United Kingdom
19.9%
27.6%
7.7
Europe total
20.3%
28.3%
8.0
United States
16.7%
28.4%
11.7
Area | subscribers June 2007 | subscribers June 2008 | Growth Y/Y |
Germany | 7,021 | 11,732 | 67.1% |
Spain | 7,207 | 12,640 | 75.4% |
France | 5,616 | 7,958 | 41.7% |
Italy | 14,462 | 18,008 | 24.5% |
United Kingdom | 8,964 | 13,100 | 46.1% |
Europe (5 countries) | 43,270 | 63,437 | 46.6% |
United States | 35,651 | 64,207 | 80.1% |
It all goes to show: nobody can match Spanish 3G growth. And France really doesn't care a damn; but US growth will put it further ahead, soon!
Source: comScore MobiLens
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