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OK, what's a 3G device? and how many does America have?

by Guy J Kewney | posted on 04 September 2008


"For years, the American mobile industry has aspired to the level of sophistication of the European market," observed Mark Donovan, senior vice president and senior analyst, comScore. "Today, Americans have finally caught up with Europeans in adoption of 3G."

The quote comes from an announcement which comScore will elaborate on next week at CTIA but which, tantalisingly, contains only the bare-bones facts: that in devices, the US has caught up with Europe.

Specifically: "The United States has caught up with Western Europe in the adoption of 3G, with 28.4 percent of American mobile subscribers having 3G devices versus 28.3 percent in the largest countries in Europe."

What devices? No details available till next week. What about coverage? no details till next week.

But the news is dismal for European operators who have sunk vast sums into the 3G infrastructure, because it implies that European phone owners are happy to carry on with ordinary 2G phones on the GSM standard. Americans have far less access to GSM networks and a viable alternative in the existing CDMA infrastructure. If they want a new phone, they are more likely to skip GSM and go straight to 3G.

However, the question of "what devices?" is crucial to understanding these figures. Much of the growth in genuine 3G usage in Europe recently has been 3G data devices, not phones (which typically use GSM even if they are 3G phones).

So the question which comScore will be asked at CTIA will be: "How does 3G coverage compare, in the US, with Europe?" - and the answer may contain clues as to which market will see most growth in the next half decade.

Tables:

Percent of subscribers with 3G Devices - 3 month average ending June
Area Penetration June 2007 Penetration June 2008 point change
Germany              15.1% 23.9% 8.1
Spain                   22.5% 37.2% 14.7
France                 12.6% 17.1% 4.5
Italy 32.1% 38.3% 6.2
United Kingdom 19.9% 27.6% 7.7
Europe total                   20.3% 28.3% 8.0
United States                   16.7% 28.4% 11.7
Total Subscribers (in 000s) with 3G Devices - 3 month average ending June
Area subscribers June 2007 subscribers June 2008 Growth Y/Y
Germany              7,021 11,732 67.1%
Spain                   7,207 12,640 75.4%
France                 5,616 7,958 41.7%
Italy 14,462 18,008 24.5%
United Kingdom 8,964 13,100 46.1%
Europe (5 countries)                    43,270 63,437 46.6%
United States                   35,651 64,207 80.1%

It all goes to show: nobody can match Spanish 3G growth. And France really doesn't care a damn; but US growth will put it further ahead, soon!

Source: comScore MobiLens


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