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Next Generation Displays - or e-paper - how not to analyse them

"I suddenly realise there's another good thing you can do with an ordinary newspaper that you couldn't do with a flashy electronic one - leave it behind for someone else to read."

It's very witty, no doubt, but wit is no substitute for analysis; and the opening of the Plastic Logic factory in Germany marks a real milestone in information technology. Steven Rosenberg's visit to Dresden barely made it to Dresden.

It's called e-paper, that's true. That doesn't mean you analyse it by comparing it with paper. The real analysis needs you to undestand what it really is: next generation display technology. And it applies not just to publishers, but to phone makers, public display systems, advertising technology, and, ultimately privacy.

Nick Hampshire, director of AFAICS Research, has just launched his update on his major (and definitive) report on Developments in e-paper technology 2008 which warns that e-paper will move into markets which don't exist.

"In one sense, the e-book reader is just another format of "the computer" – something with a user input, machine output, storage and processing," said Hampshire. "There are, however, going to cause important changes in the definition of 'what is a computer?' and they will impact the PC business, the phone business, and the Internet over the next few years in ways which we have tried to analyse in our report."

What we know for sure about e-readers, says the AFAICS report, is:-

"It's not really possible for us, in 2008, to fully grasp the potential of what these new high-resolution, high-contrast, flexible displays will make possible," said Hampshire. "For example, today's personal computers and mobile phones all assume some kind of animation capability."

Already, the report points out, conventional technology has reached astonishing heights. "We've seen full-colour, high definition video on a device the size of a pack of cards, which allows you to run a movie or a game for four or five hours before the battery gives up," says Hampshire. "With such technology, a user interface is simple: a single tap of a key or a pen on the screen, and the whole image changes to offer a menu, with buttons; each button instantly expands to a new screen, without time for thought. With tomorrow's e-reader, such a user interface might be a waste of precious power."

AFAICS predicts the evolution of two streams of display technology. On one hand, there will be video-friendly, rapid-response technology like TFTs and OLEDs - on the other, there will be static, slow-update screens - but with amazing battery life, astonishing display clarity, and remarkable physical resilience.

Managing director Peter Setterington said: "This technology has already fascinated some of the biggest high-tech companies in the world - not just newspapers. It's not just about printing and publishing. It's about schools, the phone business, the work of ordinary office IT, where these displays will have their real impact."

Setterington said that AFAICS clients so far "are mostly non-publishing corporations, looking to break through into new IT markets. Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if publishers are the last to really wake up. So far, the closest we've seen to a real publisher taking an interest, is Amazon's launch of the Kindle."

AFAICS Research is a sister company of NewsWireless, and NewsWireless Editor Guy Kewney is a founder of AFAICS.