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Hand-held computers start to boom again - Canalys

Market statistics analysed by Canalys show encouraging growth - at last - in both mobile and GSM data markets, and the research company forecasts good sales for Xmas in the mobile messaging market. That is, if the market players get their pricing right.

We've seen booms in shipment figures before, of course, and so Canalys is right to warn that the enormous jump in sales figures for the Nokia 7650 phone might not be a sign of triumph for Symbian, which makes the software in that device - but nonetheless, camera-based phones look like they can transform the year's financial figures.

In the European "EMEA" region (the strange country that isn't America and isn't the Far East and therefore includes South Africa) mobile device shipments for the third quarter of this year look as if they will be "more than double the number for Q3 last year," according to analyst Andy Buss.

The surprise is just how much Nokia's success with the 7650 has boosted Symbian. Nokia now has 56% unit share. Second, says Canalys, is Palm with 15% of units, which is a third bigger than it got last year (33% growth) while Toshiba has jumped into market-leading contention for the first time.

With total shipments of almost 1.2 million, Canalys sees this as the best quarter on record for the EMEA mobile device market, after four negative quarters. The overall market more than doubled compared to the same quarter last year, thanks largely to the 7650, while the handheld/wireless handheld segment enjoyed more modest, but still welcome, growth of 23%.

"We've seen Symbian surge before, when the Nokia 9210 Communicator hit the shelves one year ago," said Canalys director and senior analyst Chris Jones. "This is quite common when a new product launches, but often proves unsustainable. We knew there would be another one this quarter, but the 7650 is aimed at a wider audience and the indications from the channel are much more positive this time. The 7650 is being helped by high-profile promotion from Nokia and from the operators desperate to get people onto MMS, and the device is being subsidised heavily to make it affordable to the consumer market."

So Jones and Buss believe this isn't just a flash in the pan. Moreover, they think there is opportunity for more growth, since the carriers aren't ready to take on photo messaging properly. Buss: "The MMS and photo-messaging push is likely to continue well into Q4 and this will help the 7650 as well as other camera phones expected later this year.

Buss believes that photo-messaging presents a real opportunity for device manufacturers and network operators, "but only if the devices and services are priced sensibly and are easy to use." He also cautions operators against extending subsidies for expensive mobile data devices to pre-pay customers.

"New services like photo-messaging should be used as a lever to move people from pre-pay to post-pay contracts. Pre-pay customers' main concern is to control their mobile spend as much as possible," he added. "If operators are going to raise their average revenue per user, whether from voice or data, then they need to facilitate that transition. Camera phones have got off to a good start, but this data shouldn't be taken out of context - this is still a small part of the overall mobile phone market and there is a long way to go."

The integrated PocketPC Phone edition has, so far, been underwhelming, according to Canalys figures. Growth has also returned to the more established handheld segment, where shipments of all handhelds (both with and without integrated GSM/GPRS wireless capability) were up 23% on the same quarter last year." But "the integrated wireless models, such as the O2 xda, T-Mobile MDA and RIM Blackberry, have failed to take more than 3% of the total mobile device market. Conversely, models with integrated Bluetooth continue to sell well."

As far as the battle between PalmOS, Symbian and Windows goes, Symbian is now miles in front, with the biggest market share and the biggest growth rates. Out of a total of 1.18 million units, 669,490 were symbian - a rise of 252% on the 190,000 sold in the same quarter last year. Palm OS started from a similar basis last year, of 185,000, but managed just 27% growth to 234,000. Windows CE now matches Palm, roughly, with a 20% share of the total, but its growth has slowed.

Nothing else counts; "Others" accounted for 15% of last year's total for the quarter, but this year, it dropped to 4%. The data discussed in this summary comes from Mobile Analysis. Mobile Analysis comes from Canalys, which claims it is the market-leading continuous information service aimed at vendors of high-technology products and services operating in mythical continent of EMEA. More data from the Canalys web site.