News

WiMAX: "Mostly in developing countries, for next ten years" - Mobility Report

The future for mobile broadband is excellent, says Dublin-based consultancy Research and Markets; the next ten years of WiMAX is mostly with subscribers in developing markets, however, and HSPA will be where the $500 bn mobile broadband market will be.

Today's announcement by Research and Markets will be a big relief to mobile network operators, as they face sceptical investors wondering if they've made the right call in their investment plans for the future. At least, it will be a relief if the report is seen as credible.

Key highlights of the report were:

 However, some analysts are going to be dismissive about this viewpoint, in which the report positions WiMAX against the next generation, the Long Term Evolution of 3G known as LTE:

The wireless broadband sector continues to evolve as worldwide demand for wireless connectivity increases. For some time there has been an ongoing information war waged around wireless broadband developments and in 2008 it is becoming apparent that WiMAX and Long-term evolution are emerging as the most likely candidates for the Next Generation Mobile Networks. However attitudes towards the two technologies are divided, differing at a regional level and also between the types of service providers vying for this space. 

Both the emerging and developed markets around the world will benefit from wide-spread affordable wireless broadband access as there are now important social, health and economic services provided by such infrastructure such as telehealth, e-education, e-business, digital media and e-government.

While LTE it is still in the standards process, WiMAX is beginning to be launched after standardisation three years ago. LTE is also gaining industry support however, particularly from the mobile operators, as it offers a migration path to 4G from existing 3G/HSPA technologies. In 2008 it has also become apparent that the Next Generation Mobile Network Alliance is favouring LTE for 4G.

BuddeComm sees the future of WiMAX remaining in niche and emerging markets. There may be some good fixed wireless opportunities for WiMAX in regional markets and opportunities also exist in the enterprise segment. Operators in well developed telco markets should also be examining the various business models, rather than just appropriating the technology. In the emerging markets, the reason why WiMAX is being deployed is simple and quite basic – in most cases it is the only way to obtain a broadband connection. 

 As we wait to see how the WiMAX versus LTE battle unfolds, the road to 4G has seen other technologies firmly establish themselves in the market. Around the world, HSPA systems continue to be deployed with over 200 HSDPA and 51 HSUPA networks now in commercial operation.

And here's the bit which will raise some eyebrows:

The question is, will HSPA ever reach its true mass market potential or will 4G (ie, WiMAX, LTE) take that position? Operators around the world are also contemplating and deploying IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) - a mobile platform that makes seamless communications possible between fixed and mobile networks.

For many analysts, 4G does include WiMAX. For many more, however, it simply doesn't. And for much of the market IMS is already a fact in the market, and the only question is whether it can really give mobile operators the fat share of broadband that they think they need.

The report then touches on other wireless: 

WiFi has been quietly establishing itself since the early part of this decade and in 2008 there are now well over 200,000 hotspots worldwide. It is set to continue to play a key role in new meshed wireless broadband developments. While further standardisation will also see WiFi included in a whole range of devices, eventually there will be competition from other mobile wireless technologies. Security issues also continue to tarnish this sector.

Caveat: "Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year."