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iPhone next week in Europe? Wait for Carphone Warehouse

Since NewsWireless first leaked a news of the 3G iPhone back in June, the world has been full of rival rumours, most of which have predicted that Orange and O2 plus T-Mobile will launch the product on September 16th. There looks to be a genuine story behind that - but it won't be the 3G iPhone. Instead, it looks like the iPhone sales in the US have slowed down - and so there is stock for European dumping.

There's widespread prediction this weekend that September 16th will mark the European launch, with guesses that this will be the 3G model. Sadly, though there may well be an announcement, it almost certainly won't be the wideband CDMA (WCDMA) 3G version.

The giveaway detail in the latest news - rumours of a T-Mobile advert for next weekend - is the lack of any mention of Carphone Warehouse, which is key to Apple's European distribution plans.

The original plan expected a million North American sales of the original "EDGE" technology iPhone to be announced back in early July.

At first, that looked highly achievable. Our sources reported huge sales in the first week, and predicted that the Euro iPhone would be revealed to the distributors as a 3G HSDPA phone, just one week after launch. That story named Vodafone as the prime carrier, and Carphone Warehouse as the high street outlet for Europe.

But the date for the announcement came and went, and no word was heard from Apple's German HQ, where the contract was being negotiated.

At that point, rumours multiplied, leaving most observers baffled in their search for the truth. Subsequently, authoritative Financial Times stories predicted that Apple had swung a deal with Orange for France, T-Mobile for Germany, and O2 for the UK. And there, most commentators left it, pending further official announcements.

What has thrown the market for new rumours into action again, is Apple's unpredicted major price cut for the North American iPhone - an announcement tucked away in the small print of the launch of the iTouch (an iPhone without the phone).

Naturally, the price cut infuriated those who already bought at the original high price. Steve Jobs has offered oil on the troubled water:

"We have decided to offer every iPhone customer who purchased an iPhone from either Apple or AT&T, and who is not receiving a rebate or any other consideration, a $100 store credit towards the purchase of any product at an Apple Retail Store or the Apple Online Store. Details are still being worked out and will be posted on Apple's website next week. Stay tuned."

Does this change everything?

NewsWireless sources insist that the Vodafone/CPW plan for the 3G model remains intact. A source close to Newbury told our reporter that yes, the original contract had been scrapped when it turned out to be drawn up under German corporate law, which Vodafone was not prepared to accept.

But (the source insisted) the 3G deal with Vodafone remains the plan on the table, and it will be unaffected by anything Apple does with the brand this month. That, the sources added, will be an ordinary iPhone.

Yesterday's Elektronista story predicts the launch of the HSDPA high speed 3G iPhone by T-Mobile - it shows what is supposed to be a "leaked advertisement" by the German carrier.

The ad (is it genuine? who knows!)

"specifically promises a version of the handset with support for 3G-level cellular Internet access using both the US-friendly HSDPA format and typically Europe-only UMTS, with theoretical download speeds reaching the format's full 3.6Mbps. It also suggests that the device will carry 16GB of memory, representing the first storage upgrade to the device since its launch in June. Visual Voicemail and the 2-megapixel camera would remain the same as for the US version."

Several sources who have been close to Apple have appeared to support this story, reviving the trio of Orange, O2 and T-Mobile around a launch next weekend - but it might be a bad idea to assume that the HSDPA launch is related to this month's news (if there is any!).

That T-Mobile will share the 3G iPhone with Vodafone and CPW is still the basis of the NewsWireless story; so, if that story eventually turns out to be mostly accurate, then it wouldn't be entirely surprising if an advert for the HSDPA model was being trialled now.

But any launch this side of Christmas will probably not be the 3G model, our sources say.

It remains a possibility that T-Mobile will launch something soon. Trade sources say that the German carrier is under strong pressure from its investors to clarify the situation over its huge investment in the UK's 3G network.

If the announcement can be combined with the glamour of an iPhone deal, that would make it much easier to admit that the T-Mobile 3G UMTS network in the UK is not a financial success, will never be a financial success, and has to be written off.

Even so, observers are already whispering suggestions of "a new finance chief" for the German carrier - without specifying whether this would be in the UK only. If there is no good glamour news, then these whispers will be translated into announcements.

So, is all this good, or bad news for Apple? Probably good, or at the least, not bad.

When the iPhone first appeared, the analysis on this site was that Steve Jobs had been very canny, and that the first model iPhone was really a stealth launch of a new iPod user interface. 

The new iPhone user interface is the real trick. It's a typical Apple invention, making control of a cyberdevice easier, more intuitive, and it works well. But, because it's called an iPhone, everybody knows it's an iPod. The phone is what you focus on, and never notice that what's really happening is that the old iPod is no longer in the magician's hands, and the new one has been smuggled onto the stage. A wave of the hands and <pouf!/> - cries of "oooh!" and "aaaah!" and "It's an iPhone!"

Now that we know it works, Apple can refine it. That refinement has appeared in the iTouch; a new generation iPod, with the new style touch-screen user interface. The old spinning wheel controller has been picked up by rivals (including Nokia) and Apple has moved on, satisfied with the test market.

Next stage will be the 3G version of the iPhone.

Without any hard information (and you better believe we tried to get it!) it is impossible to say for sure whether this month's announcements will definitely be 3G or EDGE technology.

Strong hints came from the UK 02 network this weekend, when it revealed that it is upgrading its EDGE network. One reason (the boring one) would be that it replaces the completely phoney i-mode (Japanese-derived) video phone standard it finally abandoned recently; but the exciting reason (well, Amy-Mae Elliott got excited!) would be that it makes it possible to provide a serious iPhone data service.

OK, it's more likely that this is because O2 Germany (first) and other Telefonica owned operators have decided to support EDGE generally: as Arne Hess reported a good week back... but heck. This is rumour city, remember...? Yes, but even rumour city occasionally gets real hard news:  

"Following our earlier news from last week, that O2 Germany plans to release the Xda Atom Life as Xda comet, O2 Germany's latest customer magazine confirms the existence of the Xda comet and as expected, it's the Windows Mobile 6 Professional version of the Xda Atom Life.
"Featuring all the last Windows Mobile 6 Professional goodies including a QVGA (only) touch screen, O2 Germany's HTC TyTN II competitor features triband (900/1800/1900 MHz) GSM/GPRS/EDGE and singleband (2100 MHz) UMTS/HSDPA up to 3.6 Mbps as well as Bluetooth 1.2 (only) and WiFi 802.11b/g."

NewsWireless has expected the 3G phone in early 2008, and we still do. We're surprised there has been no announcement yet, but there are good reasons to doubt that Steve Jobs, magician though he certainly is when it comes to marketing, is capable of sorcery when it comes to technology.

The terrible truth is that though the wizard has pulled off the jump to the new user interface with great aplomb, becoming a builder of GSM technology is not merely a matter of buying a chip set from the nearest bidder; and the iPhone is not a great phone

It works. It will make, and receive calls, and therefore, it saves people who want the latest cool MP3 player from having to buy a phone as well. But you can very easily buy a better phone, which will hang onto its calls longer, and be clearer.

Failings like the phone problems with the iPhone won't be forgiven outside North America. When the 3G device is launched, a teething period will be OK, but not if it goes on more than two or three months. By summer next year, the 3G iPhone will have to be as good a phone as any other 3G device. Rushing into production would be a really great way of ensuring that this won't happen.

Prediction, as always, ensures just one thing: error. Nonetheless, for that reader who always insists on a prediction, even if only to mock, here it is: the 3G iPhone will appear, it will be Europe-wide, it will be announced quite soon, and it will be sold by Vodafone, T-Mobile and Carphone Warehouse from about February, or even earlier.

But this month, we will only see the new distribution channel for the unsold stock of US iPhones, at reduced prices. And, of course, we'll wait for the iTouch...