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Jaded: an iPhone sceptic predicts delays before European announcement

He may not be badly wrong; even if privately, Apple, Vodafone, T-Mobile and Carphone Warehouse do hold a little celebration "for the trade" next week, the 3G iPhone announcement to the world at large will (says Stephen Wildstrom) annoy loyal Apple customers.

His prediction is that Jobs will hold off: "Despite a flurry of rumors, no announcement of an iPhone deal for Europe is imminent."

Wildstrom, blogging for Business Week, wryly observes that Apple's "obsessive secrecy" means that no one who knows anything will talk, and no one who talks knows anything. "So we get to write unfettered by anything resembling actual reporting," he notes.

His analysis is that European carriers "have demonstrated a profound lack of interest in anything but a 3G version of the iPhone."

That's not far from the whole truth. In fact, to quibble, several European carriers would be quite happy to get a few thousand GSM phones, and have been showing them to favoured business prospects - as reported here. But wanting them doesn't create adequate supply; there aren't any spare stocks.

And Wildstrom is quite correct on the crucial argument: "Unlike the U.S., 3G service in Europe is ubiquitous but underutilised, and carriers are anxious to generate traffic to justify multi-billion-euro investments.

The bit he didn't add is equally important: European carriers do not have spare GPRS capacity for data, and few can handle EDGE. Americans travelling to Europe with their iPhones clutched boastfully in their hands will discover that data charges on roaming will be cruel, on top of already painful monthly connect fees to AT&T. The experience won't feel like value for money.

"To announce an enhanced iPhone just after several hundred thousand people put down $600 apiece for a poky EDGE iPhone might be more of a slap in the face than even Apple's loyal fans could tolerate," he concludes.

Full blog here