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iPhone and the Saruman effect

Yesterday, I remarked on the Saruman effect and Steve Jobs. Today, I discovered yet another example of just how awesome this effect is - with the publication of a few dozen rants from Register readers.

The trigger was Bill Ray's analysis - long before launch - of the problems facing the iPhone in the mobile phone market. His argument was simple, and to the point: mobile phone sales are dictated by the channel, not the customer.

It would be hard to describe a better phone than the HipTop - the Danger-designed machine sold as the Sidekick through T-Mobile. I got to play with one, and loved it; it's a cult machine in the US. But T-Mobile is the only carrier that will touch the thing.

Result: pitifully small sales. The channel doesn't like it; the market has trouble getting it.

The analysis for the iPhone is much harder. There are some people who like the Sidekick and Sidekick II - but nothing like the amazing horde of Saruman worshippers for whom everything Steve Jobs does is golden, and nothing like the world's existing pool of iPod owners. If one in ten iPod owners switches to the iPhone, Cingular will hit the jackpot on an unprecedented scale.

So Bill Ray may have been wrong in predicting failure for iPhone. Then again, time will tell.

But now, go check out the mailbag! 

Loud inflammatory headlines may get your article read but ultimately harm your credibility and that of your employer. You sound like a member of the anti-apple shill industry employed by hedge funds. Throw away your nasty ipod now so as not to be tainted by having a product from a doomed company such as apple. Keep writing this type of trash and fool yourself that you are helping mankind.

And that was not the least insane contribution...